Market Context — Why This Technology, Why Now

Global seismic activity and the vulnerability of urbanized areas and complex supply chains are driving demand for sophisticated predictive analytics in disaster management. Governments and corporations worldwide are investing heavily in resilience, early warning systems, and digital transformation (DX) for disaster prevention. This technology aligns perfectly with these trends, offering a novel, satellite-based approach to enhance preparedness and mitigate the devastating economic and human costs of earthquakes.

Key Competitive Advantages
01

Achieves High-Precision Earthquake Prediction: Demonstrates over 90% accuracy for regional-level predictions within 90 days for 97 past earthquakes, with 82% accuracy for magnitude within 0.7.

02

Enables Automated Detection Independent of Human Expertise: AI analyzes meteorological satellite infrared images, automating the identification of earthquake clouds that previously relied on skilled human judgment, ensuring objective and stable predictions.

03

Provides Broad-Area, Continuous Monitoring Capability: Utilizes meteorological satellite infrared images for continuous, wide-area monitoring, enabling early detection of widespread anomalies difficult for ground-based observation networks.

Market Opportunity
Construction and Infrastructure Management
$3B–$3.5B domestically (AI est.)
Contributes to reducing construction project interruption risks, predicting infrastructure equipment damage for planned maintenance, and ensuring worker safety during seismic events.
Large-scale construction firms National infrastructure operators Smart city developers
Municipalities and Disaster Management Agencies
$6B–$6.5B domestically (AI est.)
Provides early warning information to optimize resident evacuation plans, enable rapid establishment of disaster response headquarters, and directly mitigate damage.
National disaster response organizations Regional government emergency services Public safety technology providers
Insurance Industry
$0.5B–$1B domestically (AI est.)
Enables more accurate assessment of earthquake risks, leading to advanced insurance product design and optimized underwriting risk management.
Property and casualty insurers Reinsurance companies Risk assessment and modeling firms
IP Defensibility — Why Competitors Can't Replicate This
What This Patent Covers

This patent protects a program, information processing apparatus, and method for high-precision earthquake prediction using AI analysis of meteorological satellite infrared images. It covers the generation of training data, reception of target images, and determination of earthquake clouds. The patent was granted after overcoming two office actions, resulting in a robust and clearly defined scope across 12 claims, demonstrating strong stability against invalidation.

Competitive White Space

This patent focuses on earthquake prediction using satellite imagery and AI. White space exists in developing advanced mitigation technologies, integrating predictive data into autonomous emergency response systems, or leveraging the core AI for other atmospheric anomaly detection beyond seismic precursors.

Economic Impact
~$1.5M/year estimated disaster response cost reduction per facility (est.)
estimated ROI · USD · AI analysis
ROI Calculation Logic

In civil engineering and infrastructure management, earthquake-related business interruptions, equipment damage, and recovery costs can reach hundreds of millions of dollars annually. By enabling early warning, this technology could reduce disaster-related costs by ~2% for companies with ~$66.5M (AI est.) in annual disaster expenses, leading to ~$1.5M/year (AI est.) in savings. This is based on projected benefits from planned equipment maintenance and damage reduction through early evacuation.

Speed to Market
7× faster than in-house development
This technology has an established algorithm for generating earthquake cloud training data, and high-precision prediction verification (over 90% accuracy for 97 past earthquakes) based on historical meteorological satellite infrared images is already complete. This could significantly shorten development time compared to companies developing a similar system from scratch. As it primarily involves integrating the program and data into existing information processing devices or cloud infrastructure, it is estimated to accelerate market entry by approximately 3 years.
Competitive Positioning

X: Prediction Accuracy and Reliability
Y: Ease of Implementation and Cost-Effectiveness

Business Models & Applications
☁️ SaaS-Based Prediction Information Service
Offers earthquake prediction information to businesses and municipalities via a subscription model. Real-time prediction data and analysis reports can be delivered through web portals or APIs.
🔗 API Integration Service
Provides an API for earthquake prediction functionality to existing disaster prevention systems, smart city platforms, or construction site management systems, enabling seamless feature integration.
📊 Data Licensing
Licenses the earthquake cloud data and prediction models generated by this technology to research institutions or meteorological information service providers, supporting new service development.
Adjacent Application Opportunities
👵 Elderly Care and Monitoring
Disaster Evacuation Support for Elderly Care Facilities
Integrating earthquake prediction data with elderly care monitoring systems could support automated early evacuation alerts and safety confirmations. This has the potential to enhance resident safety and reduce staff burden during emergencies.
🌾 Agriculture and Fisheries
Climate-Linked Production Optimization
Combining earthquake cloud observation data with meteorological data could analyze the long-term impact of crustal movements on weather patterns. This may improve the accuracy of crop growth and fish catch predictions, potentially boosting yields by 5-10%.
✈️ Aerospace and Aviation
Satellite Image Analysis for Other Natural Disaster Prediction
The core satellite image analysis and AI detection technology could be adapted to predict other natural disasters, such as volcanic eruption precursors or flood/landslide warnings from abnormal weather, expanding its application beyond seismic events.
Integration Roadmap — Estimated 13-Month Deployment
Phase 1: Technical Evaluation and Requirements Definition
Duration: 3 months
Conduct a detailed technical evaluation for implementing this technology and define integration requirements with the licensee's existing systems, including verifying necessary data interfaces and processing capabilities.
Phase 2: System Integration and Data Training
Duration: 6 months
Integrate the technology's program with the licensee's existing information processing infrastructure based on defined requirements, and perform initial data training and adjustments using provided datasets.
Phase 3: Operation Launch and Performance Verification
Duration: 4 months
Transition the integrated system to live operation and continuously verify and optimize its accuracy and impact based on real-time earthquake prediction data.
Technical Feasibility
This technology is structured as a program that enables a processor-equipped computer to predict earthquakes, facilitating easy software implementation into existing information processing devices or cloud environments. As indicated in the claims, it can integrate with existing meteorological satellite image data via a general-purpose interface for receiving infrared image data. This is expected to enable deployment utilizing existing IT infrastructure without requiring significant hardware investment.
Success Scenario
Implementing this technology could provide licensees with high-precision early warning information not available through conventional earthquake prediction methods. This may optimize decisions for construction site work stoppages and emergency inspection plans for infrastructure, significantly enhancing business continuity. Furthermore, early evacuation preparations and countermeasure implementation could reduce direct earthquake damage by up to ~20%, potentially mitigating hundreds of millions of dollars in annual economic losses.
Patent Record
APPLICATION NO.
特願2021-140069
REGISTRATION NO.
7060750
FILING DATE
2021/08/30
GRANT DATE
2022/04/18
EXPIRATION DATE
2041/08/30
PATENT HOLDER
株式会社stepdays
Examination History
2021年08月30日
早期審査に関する事情説明書
2021年08月30日
出願審査請求書
2021年09月24日
早期審査に関する通知書
2021年11月09日
拒絶理由通知書
2021年12月09日
意見書
2021年12月09日
手続補正書(自発・内容)
2022年02月02日
拒絶理由通知書
2022年03月30日
意見書
2022年03月30日
手続補正書(自発・内容)
2022年04月12日
特許査定